RSS FeedTropical Sea Temperatures
Current US IR Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 201733 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane Teddy, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Wilfred, located over the central tropical Atlantic. Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located a few hundred miles south of the Azores and continues to produce disorganized shower activity to the northwest and north of its center of circulation. This system is drifting southward over marginally warm waters and is expected to begin moving eastward in a couple of days. The cyclone could develop tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next day or two. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A small low pressure system has moved inland over the south-central Florida peninsula and is located just to the northwest of Lake Okeechobee. Although shower activity is currently disorganized, some development could occur when the low moves westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later tonight and on Monday. However, by late Tuesday or Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph. For more information on this disturbance, please see local products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and are available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 Local forecast products issued by the National Weather Service are available on the web at www.weather.gov. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Stewart
Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT BETA HAS REDEVELOPED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 the center of Beta was located near 27.6, -93.6 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 12A
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201751 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT BETA HAS REDEVELOPED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 93.6W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 93.6 West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue during the next day or so. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north and northeast is expected Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the coast of Texas and will likely move inland by Monday night, and remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay2-4 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake2-4 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will spread westward to the warning areas in Texas late today through early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana, with 4 to 8 inches spreading northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley by mid-week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur Monday near the middle-to-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 201456 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......170NE 30SE 40SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 92.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.6N 93.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 30SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.1N 95.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.6N 95.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.6N 95.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.2N 94.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 32.1N 92.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 34.4N 89.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 93.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201459 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 Beta remains a sheared tropical cyclone whose internal structure and convective pattern remained unchanged from the previous advisory, and essentially unchanged over the past 24 hours. The cyclone is going through another bursting phase with the strongest convection displaced into the northeastern quadrant. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Beta this morning has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 61 kt in some rather vigorous thunderstorms in the north of the center, along with believable SFMR surface winds of 45-47 kt in the northeastern quadrant where 45-kt winds were reported by ship KGSG at 0800 UTC. The aircraft also found that the central pressure was down a little bit to 996 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is being maintained at 50 kt. It should be noted that the wind field is quite asymmetric with the strongest winds located in the deep convection and farther to the northeast behind an old frontal boundary. Beta remains trapped in weak steering currents and the initial motion is still quite slow at 300/03 kt. Beta is forecast to remain embedded in weak steering currents for the next 48 h or so, caught between a mid-level ridge located over Florida and another ridge situated over the U.S. Southern Plains. Thereafter, the ridge over the Southern Plains if expected to break down while the ridge over Florida amplifies northward and westward across the southern U.S., resulting in a very gradual increase in forward speed toward the north by late Tuesday and then toward the northeast on Wednesday. Beta is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by early Wednesday and dissipate inland over the lower Mississippi by late Friday or Saturday. Due to the continued southwest to westerly shear expected to affect Beta, which will keep the convection confined to the northeastern and eastern quadrants, the official forecast track is located along the eastern or right side of the track guidance envelope, and is the right of all of the consensus aids, toward the middle-to-upper Texas coast. Beta is expected to remain under the influence of 15-20 kt of deep layer vertical wind shear, which is enough to keep the cyclone from strengthening much, if any, but not enough to weaken or dissipate the cyclone before it makes landfall. As a result, the intensity is forecast to remain steady at 50 kt until landfall, followed by slower-than-normal weakening for an inland tropical cyclone due to its expected proximity to the Gulf where onshore rainbands could brings higher squalls along the coast. By 72 h, Beta is forecast to weaken fairly quickly into a remnant low since the system will be much farther inland by that time. The intensity model guidance remain in decent agreement, so the new NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous advisory and is similar to the HCCA consensus model. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and river flooding is likely. Rainfall will then spread northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley by mid-week where flash, urban, and river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds are occurring along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area in Louisiana. These winds will spread westward to the Texas coast later today and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 27.2N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 27.6N 93.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 28.1N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 95.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 29.0N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/0000Z 29.6N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1200Z 30.2N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1200Z 32.1N 92.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 25/1200Z 34.4N 89.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020
000
FONT12 KNHC 201457
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 1(14)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 1(14)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 1(14)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 38 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
FORT POLK LA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 1(17)
LAKE CHARLES 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 4(14) 7(21) 2(23) 1(24)
LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CAMERON LA 34 30 9(39) 2(41) 2(43) 5(48) 2(50) X(50)
CAMERON LA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
JASPER TX 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 9(21) 1(22) 1(23)
JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KOUNTZE TX 34 3 6( 9) 6(15) 8(23) 7(30) 1(31) 1(32)
KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 8 10(18) 5(23) 5(28) 5(33) 2(35) X(35)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GALVESTON TX 34 39 23(62) 9(71) 2(73) 1(74) 1(75) X(75)
GALVESTON TX 50 1 7( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 3(19) X(19) 1(20)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HOUSTON TX 34 4 20(24) 10(34) 10(44) 6(50) 1(51) X(51)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11)
HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
AUSTIN TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13)
FREEPORT TX 34 20 40(60) 9(69) 3(72) 1(73) 1(74) X(74)
FREEPORT TX 50 X 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 63 19(82) 4(86) 1(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 25(26) 6(32) 2(34) 1(35) 1(36) X(36)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 21 19(40) 6(46) 3(49) 5(54) 1(55) X(55)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
MATAGORDA TX 34 20 35(55) 13(68) 4(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X 6( 6) 12(18) 5(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25)
MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT O CONNOR 34 11 28(39) 15(54) 5(59) 4(63) X(63) X(63)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) 1(19)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ROCKPORT TX 34 1 6( 7) 10(17) 8(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 8 11(19) 8(27) 4(31) 3(34) 1(35) X(35)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
KEESLER AB 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Beta Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 17:54:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 15:33:21 GMT
Tropical Storm Beta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 15:45:13 GMT
Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 14:58:41 GMT
Local Statement for Corpus Christi, TX
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020
Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TX
Issued at 1021 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020
Local Statement for Brownsville, TX
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020
Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020
Summary for Tropical Depression Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)
...WILFRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Wilfred was located near 15.7, -44.2 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Wilfred Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 201445 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Wilfred Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...WILFRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 44.2W ABOUT 1340 MI...2160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Wilfred was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 44.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). Wilfred should slow its forward speed while heading toward the west or west-northwestward for the next few days until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Wilfred should weaken to a remnant low within a couple days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
Tropical Depression Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 201444 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 44.2W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 44.2W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 43.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.2N 46.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 48.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 51.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.2N 52.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 44.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Depression Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 201450 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Wilfred Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 First-light visible imagery of Wilfred shows a well-defined center south of widespread - but not very well banded - deep convection. The improved positioning this morning allows for a more confident assessment of its movement toward the west-northwest at 17 kt. As the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly steered by the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward the west or west-northwest until dissipation. The new track forecast is slightly farther west due to the faster initial motion within 36 hours, then slightly farther east afterward based upon the TVCN track consensus approach. While the ASCAT scatterometer passes this morning missed Wilfred's center, ASCAT-B observed 30 kt peak winds in its northeastern quadrant. This value is used as the initial intensity, consistent with both SAB and TAFB's Dvorak classifications. The combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as winds on the southern side of an impinging upper-level trough are causing about 20 kt vertical shear from the west-northwest. This shear should increase over the next couple of days as Wilfred gets into closer proximity with the trough. The strong shear and dry mid-level humidities should continue to cause a reduction of the deep convection and lead to the system becoming a remnant low in a couple of days followed within another day or so by dissipation. All statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is in agreement with this scenario. Alternatively, Wilfred could become a remnant low sooner, if the convection ceases later today or Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.7N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 16.2N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 16.5N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 16.8N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 17.0N 51.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 17.2N 52.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
Tropical Depression Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020
000
FONT13 KNHC 201445
PWSAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Depression Wilfred Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 14:53:16 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 15:40:49 GMT
Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
...OUTER BANDS OF TEDDY SHOWING UP ON BERMUDA RADAR... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 2:00 PM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Teddy was located near 28.6, -63.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 33A
Issued at 200 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201751 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 200 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...OUTER BANDS OF TEDDY SHOWING UP ON BERMUDA RADAR... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 63.1W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. Interests in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 63.1 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and then Teddy is forecast to continue generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Teddy should be approaching Nova Scotia on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Monday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda tonight and could continue into Monday night. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 33
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 201449 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANANDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 62.8W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 270SE 420SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 62.8W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.2N 63.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 170SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...350NE 270SE 290SW 310NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 50 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. 34 KT...350NE 330SE 290SW 280NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.7N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...310NE 280SE 260SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...190NE 250SE 200SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 53.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 60.5N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 62.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 33
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 201455 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 The satellite signature of Teddy has degraded from an eye pattern overnight into a central dense overcast this morning. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the hurricane has weakened, and the initial wind speed is set to 90 kt, perhaps generously. The aircraft data does still show that Teddy remains a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward in the northeastward quadrant to about 70 n mi. While the forecast intensity does not change much over the next couple of days, the hurricane should undergo significant changes during that time. Teddy should not lose any more strength by late today due to favorable positioning with an approaching trough, and the gale-force winds should greatly expand due to this trough interaction. In 2 or 3 days, after the system occludes and becomes post-tropical, the cyclone should weaken because of a loss of extratropical forcing while over the cooler water south of Nova Scotia. Eventually Teddy will probably get absorbed by a larger extratropical low around day 5. Model guidance is fairly tightly packed around the official wind forecast, which leans on the global models given the substantial extratropical contributions, plus or minus 5 kt throughout the forecast period. The hurricane has resumed a northwestward motion or 320/8 kt. Teddy is likely to turn northward today and north-northeastward tomorrow due to the aforementioned trough. By early Tuesday, the cyclone should turn back to the north-northwest as it rotates around the same trough, then turn northeastward early Wednesday ahead of yet another trough moving into from eastern Canada. Although the forecast evolution is complex, model guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and no substantial changes were made to the previous forecast. Regardless of the details, every model has a rather large and strong post-tropical cyclone south of Nova Scotia in about 3 days. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning this evening and could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 28.3N 62.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 29.2N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 31.0N 62.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 41.7N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/1200Z 53.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/1200Z 60.5N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020
000
FONT15 KNHC 201451
PWSAT5
HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) X(30)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 28(40) X(40)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 27(44) X(44)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 14(50) X(50)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 20(56) X(56)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 49(53) 6(59) X(59)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 54(56) 4(60) X(60)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 1(36) X(36)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 34 14 38(52) 14(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
BERMUDA 50 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Teddy Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 17:53:04 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 15:25:35 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 201732 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with the low pressure system centered about 350 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become better defined today, with thunderstorm activity still showing signs of organization. If this trend continues, advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression later today or tonight, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 20 Sep 2020 17:55:50 GMT
