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Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from NOAA

 

Current US IR Satellite Loop

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201733
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane 
Teddy, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda, 
and on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Wilfred, located 
over the central tropical Atlantic. 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located a few hundred miles south 
of the Azores and continues to produce disorganized shower activity 
to the northwest and north of its center of circulation. This system 
is drifting southward over marginally warm waters and is expected to 
begin moving eastward in a couple of days. The cyclone could develop 
tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next day or two. 
For more information about marine hazards associated with this 
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A small low pressure system has moved inland over the south-central 
Florida peninsula and is located just to the northwest of Lake 
Okeechobee. Although shower activity is currently disorganized, some 
development could occur when the low moves westward over the eastern 
Gulf of Mexico later tonight and on Monday. However, by late Tuesday 
or Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable 
for tropical cyclone formation while the system moves westward to 
west-northwestward at about 10 mph. For more information on this 
disturbance, please see local products and High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO 
header FQNT50 LFPW and are available on the web at 
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ 
metarea2

Local forecast products issued by the National Weather Service are 
available on the web at www.weather.gov.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT BETA HAS REDEVELOPED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST...
 As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 20
 the center of Beta was located near 27.6, -93.6
 with movement WNW at 5 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 12A

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 201751
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
100 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020
 
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT BETA HAS
REDEVELOPED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 93.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana,
including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is
a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 93.6
West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h),
and this general motion is forecast to continue during the next day
or so. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north and
northeast is expected Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the coast of
Texas and will likely move inland by Monday night, and remain close
to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple
of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is
anticipated once Beta moves inland.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5
ft
Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas
Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine
Lake and Calcasieu Lake2-4 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and
Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical
storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will
spread westward to the warning areas in Texas late today through
early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on
Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches
from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana, with 4 to 8
inches spreading northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley
by mid-week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as minor
to isolated moderate river flooding.
 
TORNADOES:  A tornado or two could occur Monday near the
middle-to-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.
 
SURF:  Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and
the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a
cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 201456
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BAFFIN
BAY TEXAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE
REFUGE...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN
ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND 
LAKE CALCASIEU
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING 
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... 
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION 
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM 
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS 
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS 
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM 
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. 
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL 
OFFICIALS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N  93.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......170NE  30SE  40SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N  93.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  92.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.6N  93.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...140NE  30SE  40SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.1N  95.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...130NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.6N  95.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N  96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.6N  95.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.2N  94.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 32.1N  92.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 34.4N  89.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N  93.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 201459
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020
 
Beta remains a sheared tropical cyclone whose internal structure and 
convective pattern remained unchanged from the previous advisory, 
and essentially unchanged over the past 24 hours. The cyclone is 
going through another bursting phase with the strongest convection 
displaced into the northeastern quadrant. An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft investigating Beta this morning has found 
maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 61 kt in some rather vigorous 
thunderstorms in the north of the center, along with believable SFMR 
surface winds of 45-47 kt in the northeastern quadrant where 45-kt 
winds were reported by ship KGSG at 0800 UTC. The aircraft also 
found that the central pressure was down a little bit to 996 mb. 
Based on these data, the initial intensity is being maintained at 50 
kt. It should be noted that the wind field is quite asymmetric with 
the strongest winds located in the deep convection and farther to 
the northeast behind an old frontal boundary.
 
Beta remains trapped in weak steering currents and the initial 
motion is still quite slow at 300/03 kt. Beta is forecast to remain 
embedded in weak steering currents for the next 48 h or so, caught 
between a mid-level ridge located over Florida and another ridge 
situated over the U.S. Southern Plains. Thereafter, the ridge over 
the Southern Plains if expected to break down while the ridge over 
Florida amplifies northward and westward across the southern U.S., 
resulting in a very gradual increase in forward speed toward the 
north by late Tuesday and then toward the northeast on Wednesday. 
Beta is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by 
early Wednesday and dissipate inland over the lower Mississippi by 
late Friday or Saturday. Due to the continued southwest to westerly 
shear expected to affect Beta, which will keep the convection 
confined to the northeastern and eastern quadrants, the official 
forecast track is located along the eastern or right side of the 
track guidance envelope, and is the right of all of the consensus 
aids, toward the middle-to-upper Texas coast.
 
Beta is expected to remain under the influence of 15-20 kt of deep 
layer vertical wind shear, which is enough to keep the cyclone from 
strengthening much, if any, but not enough to weaken or dissipate 
the cyclone before it makes landfall. As a result, the intensity is 
forecast to remain steady at 50 kt until landfall, followed by 
slower-than-normal weakening for an inland tropical cyclone due to 
its expected proximity to the Gulf where onshore rainbands could 
brings higher squalls along the coast. By 72 h, Beta is forecast to 
weaken fairly quickly into a remnant low since the system will be 
much farther inland by that time. The intensity model guidance 
remain in decent agreement, so the new NHC intensity forecast is 
identical to the previous advisory and is similar to the HCCA 
consensus model.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration 
rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. 
Flash, urban, and river flooding is likely. Rainfall will then 
spread northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley by mid-week 
where flash, urban, and river flooding is possible.
 
2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.
 
3. Tropical-storm-force winds are occurring along portions of the
northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area in
Louisiana.  These winds will spread westward to the Texas coast
later today and Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 27.2N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 27.6N  93.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 28.1N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 28.6N  95.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 29.0N  96.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  23/0000Z 29.6N  95.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  23/1200Z 30.2N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  24/1200Z 32.1N  92.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  25/1200Z 34.4N  89.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 201457
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   5(10)   3(13)   1(14)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   1(14)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   1(14)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 38   1(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   7(14)   2(16)   1(17)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  4   4( 8)   2(10)   4(14)   7(21)   2(23)   1(24)
LAKE CHARLES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMERON LA     34 30   9(39)   2(41)   2(43)   5(48)   2(50)   X(50)
CAMERON LA     50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
CAMERON LA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
JASPER TX      34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   6(12)   9(21)   1(22)   1(23)
JASPER TX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  3   6( 9)   6(15)   8(23)   7(30)   1(31)   1(32)
KOUNTZE TX     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  8  10(18)   5(23)   5(28)   5(33)   2(35)   X(35)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 39  23(62)   9(71)   2(73)   1(74)   1(75)   X(75)
GALVESTON TX   50  1   7( 8)   6(14)   2(16)   3(19)   X(19)   1(20)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  4  20(24)  10(34)  10(44)   6(50)   1(51)   X(51)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   9(14)   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 20  40(60)   9(69)   3(72)   1(73)   1(74)   X(74)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   4( 4)   6(10)   4(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34 63  19(82)   4(86)   1(87)   1(88)   1(89)   X(89)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  1  25(26)   6(32)   2(34)   1(35)   1(36)   X(36)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 21  19(40)   6(46)   3(49)   5(54)   1(55)   X(55)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34 20  35(55)  13(68)   4(72)   3(75)   X(75)   X(75)
MATAGORDA TX   50  X   6( 6)  12(18)   5(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)
MATAGORDA TX   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34 11  28(39)  15(54)   5(59)   4(63)   X(63)   X(63)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   3( 3)   8(11)   5(16)   2(18)   X(18)   1(19)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ROCKPORT TX    34  1   6( 7)  10(17)   8(25)   5(30)   X(30)   X(30)
ROCKPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  1   1( 2)   5( 7)   7(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  8  11(19)   8(27)   4(31)   3(34)   1(35)   X(35)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MCALLEN TX     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HARLINGEN TX   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
KEESLER AB     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Beta Graphics

Tropical Storm Beta 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 17:54:39 GMT

Tropical Storm Beta 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 15:33:21 GMT

Tropical Storm Beta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Tropical Storm Beta Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 15:45:13 GMT

Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Tropical Storm Beta Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 14:58:41 GMT

Local Statement for Corpus Christi, TX

Issued at  1017 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TX

Issued at  1021 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Local Statement for Brownsville, TX

Issued at  1025 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA

Issued at  1030 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Summary for Tropical Depression Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)

...WILFRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE OPEN  ATLANTIC...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 20
 the center of Wilfred was located near 15.7, -44.2
 with movement WNW at 20 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Wilfred Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201445
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Wilfred Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020
 
...WILFRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE OPEN 
ATLANTIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 44.2W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Wilfred
was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 44.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 
km/h). Wilfred should slow its forward speed while heading toward 
the west or west-northwestward for the next few days until 
dissipation.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Wilfred should weaken to a remnant low within a couple days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Landsea

Tropical Depression Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 201444
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL232020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  44.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  44.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  43.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.2N  46.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N  48.4W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.8N  50.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N  51.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.2N  52.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N  44.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

Tropical Depression Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 201450
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Wilfred Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020
 
First-light visible imagery of Wilfred shows a well-defined center 
south of widespread - but not very well banded - deep convection.  
The improved positioning this morning allows for a more confident 
assessment of its movement toward the west-northwest at 17 kt.  As 
the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly steered by 
the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward the west or 
west-northwest until dissipation.  The new track forecast is 
slightly farther west due to the faster initial motion within 36 
hours, then slightly farther east afterward based upon the TVCN 
track consensus approach.

While the ASCAT scatterometer passes this morning missed Wilfred's 
center, ASCAT-B observed 30 kt peak winds in its northeastern 
quadrant.  This value is used as the initial intensity, consistent 
with both SAB and TAFB's Dvorak classifications. 

The combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as winds on 
the southern side of an impinging upper-level trough are causing 
about 20 kt vertical shear from the west-northwest.  This shear 
should increase over the next couple of days as Wilfred gets into 
closer proximity with the trough.  The strong shear and dry 
mid-level humidities should continue to cause a reduction of the 
deep convection and lead to the system becoming a remnant low in a 
couple of days followed within another day or so by dissipation.  
All statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is in agreement 
with this scenario. Alternatively, Wilfred could become a remnant 
low sooner, if the convection ceases later today or Monday.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 15.7N  44.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 16.2N  46.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 16.5N  48.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 16.8N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 17.0N  51.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0000Z 17.2N  52.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Landsea

Tropical Depression Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 201445
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL232020               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LANDSEA

Tropical Depression Wilfred Graphics

Tropical Depression Wilfred 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 14:53:16 GMT

Tropical Depression Wilfred 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 15:40:49 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

...OUTER BANDS OF TEDDY SHOWING UP ON BERMUDA RADAR... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS...
 As of 2:00 PM AST Sun Sep 20
 the center of Teddy was located near 28.6, -63.1
 with movement NW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 964 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 33A

Issued at 200 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 201751
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
200 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020
 
...OUTER BANDS OF TEDDY SHOWING UP ON BERMUDA RADAR...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 63.1W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.
 
Interests in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of
Teddy.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located 
near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 63.1 West.  Teddy is moving 
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north 
is expected tonight, and then Teddy is forecast to continue 
generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, 
Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east 
of the island Monday morning.  Teddy should be approaching Nova 
Scotia on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  The system is expected to remain a large and powerful
hurricane through Monday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone
on Tuesday.
 
Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
tonight and could continue into Monday night.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 33

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 201449
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANANDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS 
OF TEDDY.  
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  62.8W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..510NE 270SE 420SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  62.8W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  62.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.2N  63.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 170SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.0N  62.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.8N  62.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...350NE 270SE 290SW 310NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N  63.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
50 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
34 KT...350NE 330SE 290SW 280NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.7N  63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...310NE 280SE 260SW 230NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.5N  62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...190NE 250SE 200SW 170NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 53.0N  53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 60.5N  39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N  62.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 33

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 201455
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

The satellite signature of Teddy has degraded from an eye pattern 
overnight into a central dense overcast this morning.  Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the hurricane 
has weakened, and the initial wind speed is set to 90 kt, perhaps 
generously.  The aircraft data does still show that Teddy remains a 
large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward in the 
northeastward quadrant to about 70 n mi.

While the forecast intensity does not change much over the next 
couple of days, the hurricane should undergo significant changes 
during that time.  Teddy should not lose any more strength by late 
today due to favorable positioning with an approaching trough, and 
the gale-force winds should greatly expand due to this trough 
interaction. In 2 or 3 days, after the system occludes and becomes 
post-tropical, the cyclone should weaken because of a loss of  
extratropical forcing while over the cooler water south of Nova 
Scotia.  Eventually Teddy will probably get absorbed by a larger 
extratropical low around day 5.  Model guidance is fairly tightly 
packed around the official wind forecast, which leans on the global 
models given the substantial extratropical contributions, plus or 
minus 5 kt throughout the forecast period.

The hurricane has resumed a northwestward motion or 320/8 kt. Teddy 
is likely to turn northward today and north-northeastward tomorrow 
due to the aforementioned trough. By early Tuesday, the cyclone 
should turn back to the north-northwest as it rotates around the 
same trough, then turn northeastward early Wednesday ahead of yet 
another trough moving into from eastern Canada.  Although the 
forecast evolution is complex, model guidance is in remarkably good 
agreement, and no substantial changes were made to the previous 
forecast. Regardless of the details, every model has a rather large 
and strong post-tropical cyclone south of Nova Scotia in about 3 
days.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on 
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning 
this evening and could continue into Monday evening.
 
2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical 
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early 
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from 
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor 
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.
 
3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of 
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the 
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next 
few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 28.3N  62.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 29.2N  63.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 31.0N  62.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 34.8N  62.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 38.8N  63.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 41.7N  63.4W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1200Z 44.5N  62.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  24/1200Z 53.0N  53.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  25/1200Z 60.5N  39.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 201451
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  33                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  21(30)   X(30)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  28(40)   X(40)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  27(44)   X(44)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   X(16)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  36(36)  14(50)   X(50)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   6(18)   X(18)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  36(36)  20(56)   X(56)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   9(19)   X(19)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  49(53)   6(59)   X(59)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   3(21)   X(21)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  54(56)   4(60)   X(60)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   2(28)   X(28)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  33(35)   1(36)   X(36)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   3(21)   X(21)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
MONCTON NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   1(16)   X(16)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34 14  38(52)  14(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
BERMUDA        50  X   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Teddy Graphics

Hurricane Teddy 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 17:53:04 GMT

Hurricane Teddy 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 15:25:35 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201732
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with the 
low pressure system centered about 350 miles southwest of 
Manzanillo, Mexico, has become better defined today, with 
thunderstorm activity still showing signs of organization.  If this 
trend continues, advisories could be initiated on a tropical 
depression later today or tonight, and environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for additional development while the system 
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 20 Sep 2020 17:55:50 GMT
deformed-offering