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Current US IR Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220517
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bertha, located over the northern Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Summary for Tropical Storm Bertha (AT2/AL022026)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 the center of Bertha was located near 29.4, -87.7 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Bertha Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220241 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 87.7W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Cameron, Louisiana * Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 87.7 West. Bertha is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a generally westward motion is expected Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Wednesday Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. In the past hour, a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h) was reported in Petit Bois Island, Mississippi. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter observations is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area tonight through Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Louisiana by Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Cameron, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft MS/AL Border to Aucilla River, FL...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals to 6 inches through Thursday along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida through southern Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero. SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2026 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220240 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 87.7W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 120SE 60SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 87.7W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 87.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.4N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.3N 92.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.3N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 97.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 87.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220242 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 North-northeasterly vertical wind shear persists over Bertha this evening. The storm continues to produce strong convection with cloud tops colder than -70 deg C over its southern semicircle. Reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations indicate that the low-level center is near the northeastern edge of the main convective mass. Tail Doppler radar winds from the NOAA aircraft indicate that the vortex is tilted southward with height, likely due to the shear. The central pressure is about the same as earlier today and peak flight-level winds from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support maintaining the current intensity at 50 kt, although this may be slightly generous. Based on the aircraft and satellite center fixes, the initial motion estimate is westward, or 270/5 kt. There is little change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Bertha had been situated between two mid-level high centers, but the larger high to the northwest, over the south-central United States, will likely become the dominant steering mechanism. Bertha should move generally westward on the southern side of this high, near or along the northern Gulf coast, for the next 36-48 hours. Then the cyclone, if it survives, should move over portions of southeastern Texas. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the corrected consensus and Google DeepMind guidance. Bertha is likely to remain in an environment of strong vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air for the next couple of days. Additionally, the storm is expected to move at least partially over southeastern Louisiana in 24 hours or so. Given the hostile atmospheric conditions and partial interaction with land, a weakening trend is likely to begin tomorrow. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the corrected consensus guidance. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along portions of the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana, including the Metro New Orleans area, through Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the southwestern coast of Louisiana Wednesday night and Thursday. 2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected. 3. Interests elsewhere in extreme western Louisiana and along the Upper Texas Coast should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of that area. 4. Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle into southern Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 29.4N 87.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 29.4N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1200Z 29.3N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 24/0000Z 29.3N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/1200Z 29.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Bertha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2026 000
FONT12 KNHC 220241
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFAM 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFAM 290N 870W 50 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
GULFPORT MS 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
STENNIS MS 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BURAS LA 34 6 40(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
BURAS LA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFAM 280N 890W 34 5 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
HOUMA LA 34 X 12(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
GFAM 280N 910W 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GFAM 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFAM 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Bertha Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2026 03:22:49 GMT
Tropical Storm Bertha Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL
Issued at 1117 PM EDT
Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA
Issued at 1039 PM CDT
Local Statement for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued at 1022 PM CDT
Local Statement for Mobile, AL/Pensacola, FL
Issued at 1039 PM CDT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220517
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fausto, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Eastern and Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles off the coast of Central
America is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward
offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Well Southwest of Hawaii:
A trough of low pressure located well southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward during the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend as the system approaches the
International Date Line.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Summary for Hurricane Fausto (EP1/EP062026)
...FAUSTO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM HST Tue Jul 21 the center of Fausto was located near 16.6, -120.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Fausto Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2026 357 WTPZ31 KNHC 220235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Fausto Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2026 ...FAUSTO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 120.3W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fausto was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 120.3 West. Fausto is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Fausto are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula, and should persist for a couple more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Hurricane Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2026 425 WTPZ21 KNHC 220235 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 120.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 135SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 120.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.9N 121.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 110SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.3N 123.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.6N 125.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.9N 127.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.2N 130.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.6N 133.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 15SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 138.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.0N 143.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 120.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Hurricane Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2026 824 WTPZ41 KNHC 220236 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2026 A 21/2144 UTC AMSR-2 overpass shows a microwave eye feature tucked under the convection, indicating that Fausto may have re-gained some organization. The pass also indicates the previous advisory may have been about 10 to 15 miles too fast toward the northwest. Recent objective intensity estimates have been ranging between 60-75 kt. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB is 4.5/77 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt for this advisory, as a blend of all the aforementioned data. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 8 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of the cyclone should build westward during the next several days, which should steer the cyclone west-northwestward to westward through the forecast period. The new NHC forecast track lies slightly to the south of, and is a bit slower than, the previous forecast track for the first 3 days, and is in excellent agreement with the latest HCCA and GDMI during that time. Beyond 3 days, the NHC forecast has been shifted southward of the previous forecast, but not nearly as far south as the latest HCCA and GDMI. The confidence in the forecast track is moderate to high through 72 h, given the relatively tight clustering of the guidance. Spread increases after that time, with the GFS among the slower and farthest north models, while the ECMWF, HCCA and GDMI are faster and farther south. While Fausto is forecast to be in a light to moderate shear environment for the next several days, it will be moving over slowly decreasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) through 72 h. The forecast track is near and roughly parallel to the 26C isotherm. In addition, the atmospheric moisture near the storm should slowly decrease through 72 h, followed by a faster decrease. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 h, and no change is made to the 85 kt peak intensity forecast shown in the previous advisory. The NHC forecast lies between the middle and upper-end of the reliable intensity guidance during that period. By Thursday night or Friday, gradual weakening is expected due to the drier air and SSTs near 26C. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model suite from 60 h through the end of the forecast period. It is possible that Fausto could weaken to a tropical storm by day 5, given that several reliable models show this scenario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 16.6N 120.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 16.9N 121.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 17.3N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 17.6N 125.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 17.9N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 18.2N 130.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 18.6N 133.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 19.2N 138.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 20.0N 143.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
Hurricane Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2026 365
FOPZ11 KNHC 220235
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 42(52) X(52) X(52)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 36(68) X(68)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) X(31)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 28(65)
20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29)
20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30)
20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Hurricane Fausto Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2026 03:28:31 GMT
