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Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from NOAA

 

Current US IR Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061115
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 06 Jul 2022 11:25:27 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061119
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Bonnie, located several hundred miles south-southwest of 
southwestern Mexico.

1.  Offshore of Central America/Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the 
coast of Central America is forecast to produce an area of low 
pressure southwest of the coast of southern Mexico toward the end of 
the week.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could 
form over the weekend while the system moves generally 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Hurricane Bonnie (EP4/EP042022)

...BONNIE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE OPEN EASTERN  PACIFIC...
 As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 6
 the center of Bonnie was located near 15.9, -108.3
 with movement W at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 971 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Bonnie Public Advisory Number 35

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 060837
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
 
...BONNIE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE OPEN EASTERN 
PACIFIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 108.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 108.3 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-
northwestward motion is forecast through the week with a slight
decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is expected through 
Thursday.  Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday 
night and continue through Friday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Advisory Number 35

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 06 2022  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 060836
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042022
0900 UTC WED JUL 06 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 108.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 108.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.3N 109.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.8N 112.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.4N 114.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 20.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 108.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Discussion Number 35

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022  

451 
WTPZ44 KNHC 060837
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
 
Bonnie continues to feel the effects of north-northeasterly shear, 
with the central convection becoming less organized during the past 
few hours.  The various subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates have trended downward since the last advisory, 
and based on this the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt.  This 
could be a little generous, as the CIMSS SATCON and ADT estimates 
are currently 65-70 kt
 
The current shear is likely to diminish during the next 24 h.  
However, the sea surface temperatures are expected to decrease 
along the forecast track, with the cyclone reaching the 26C 
isotherm in about 48 h and moving over colder water after that.  In 
addition, Bonnie is likely to encounter a much drier air mass after 
about 24 h.  The new intensity forecast now calls for Bobbie to 
change little in strength during the next 24-36 h, followed by 
steady weakening.  The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical 
in about 96 h and to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 
120 h.  The new intensity forecast has some downward adjustments 
from the previous forecast and follows the general trend of the 
intensity guidance.
 
Bonnie is moving 280/12 kt along the southern periphery of a 
mid-level ridge to the north.  This ridge is forecast to weaken a 
bit in the next day or so and slightly reduce the forward speed of 
the system for a couple of days.  Later in the forecast period, 
Bonnie is expected to weaken and become a shallow circulation, 
which would result in the cyclone turning westward and accelerating 
in the low-level trade wind flow.  The new forecast track is an 
update of the previous track and lies near the consensus models, 
which are between the slightly faster UKMET and the slightly slower 
GFS.
 
Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for
another day or so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 15.9N 108.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 16.3N 109.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 16.8N 112.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 17.4N 114.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 18.0N 117.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  11/0600Z 20.0N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Bonnie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 06 2022                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 060837
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042022               
0900 UTC WED JUL 06 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 110W       34 27   5(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
15N 110W       50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   4( 4)  69(73)   6(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)  27(27)   7(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   9( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
15N 115W       34  X   2( 2)  13(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
20N 115W       34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   7(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  36(46)   X(46)   X(46)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)   8(45)   X(45)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)   X(15)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   X(23)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Bonnie Graphics

Hurricane Bonnie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 08:39:42 GMT

Hurricane Bonnie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 09:23:06 GMT

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