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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221728
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 22 Oct 2018 18:01:40 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221735
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 22 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vicente, located a few hundred miles southeast of Manzanillo,
Mexico, and on Hurricane Willa, located a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Showers and thunderstorms have decreased today in association with a
small area of low pressure, located a little over 800 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally
conducive for some gradual development of this system during the
next couple of days, but upper-level winds are expected to
become unfavorable for development by later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)

...VICENTE LOOKING LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... ...STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 22
 the center of Vicente was located near 14.9, -100.8
 with movement WNW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 221444
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...VICENTE LOOKING LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...
...STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.8W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.8 West.  Vicente is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a turn
to the northwest is expected today followed by a turn to the
north-northwest on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Vicente is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to become a tropical
depression by tonight or Tuesday.  The cyclone's circulation is
expected to dissipate near the southwestern coast of Mexico by
Wednesday.

Vicente is a small tropical cyclone.  Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday
over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.
This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Latto

Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 221444
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018
1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.8W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.8W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE   0SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.4N 103.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.9N 104.0W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.3N 104.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 100.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LATTO

Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 221445
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Satellite imagery and microwave data this morning are indicating
that the early morning re-strengthening of Vicente has ended.  The
system appears elongated, with the low-level center becoming
increasingly difficult to locate.  Radar imagery from Acapulco,
Mexico, does not suggest a well-organized tropical cyclone at this
time.  The averages of the subjective Dvorak analyses from SAB and
TAFB support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which may be a little
generous.

Moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over the
cyclone the next couple of days which should support ongoing
steady weakening. The GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show the cyclone
dissipating tonight, with some of the other global model guidance
showing little change in intensity until landfall.  Given the
current disorganized appearance, a weakening trend appears to be
the most realistic scenario, with Vicente forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression before it makes landfall over southwestern
Mexico in about 36 hours. Regardless of the forecast intensity, the
primary hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash
flooding.

Vicente appears to have begun a turn to the west-northwest, and
the initial motion is now estimated to be 290/10 kt as the system
begins to round the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge
over Mexico.  As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of the
ridge later today and Tuesday, a turn to the northwest and then
north-northwest is expected.  The latest NHC forecast track is
similar, and just slightly to the right of the previous one,
and is near the tightly clustered model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 14.9N 100.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 15.8N 101.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 17.4N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 18.9N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  24/1200Z 20.3N 104.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Latto

Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018  

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 221444
PWSEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018
1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)  18(18)   6(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

L CARDENAS     34  X   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LATTO

Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics

Tropical Storm Vicente 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 14:46:27 GMT

Tropical Storm Vicente 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 15:21:56 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Willa (EP4/EP242018)

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WILLA MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 As of 12:00 PM MDT Mon Oct 22
 the center of Willa was located near 19.4, -107.2
 with movement N at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 925 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 10A

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 221736
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
1200 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WILLA
MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 107.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 107.2 West.  Willa is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today.  Willa is forecast to accelerate toward
the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias
early Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday afternoon or
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Willa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is still possible today.
Slight weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, but Willa is
expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the coast of Mexico.  The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft that was en route to Willa experienced a safety issue
before entering the storm and had to return to base.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday
night, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa
makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico.  This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday morning.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight
and Tuesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days.  Swells should begin to affect portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Willa Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 221446
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018
1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.2W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  925 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.2W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.1N 107.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 106.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.1N 105.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.4N 102.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 221515 CCA
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number  10...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Corrected wording in Key Messages number 2

Willa is an extremely impressive hurricane in infrared and visible
satellite imagery this morning.  The small, but very distinct, eye
is embedded within a symmetric central dense overcast with cloud
tops of -70 to -80 degrees Celsius.  A very recent SSMIS microwave
overpass is the first to indicate that an outer eyewall has formed,
suggesting that an eyewall replacement cycle has started.  The
latest objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS are T7.0/140 kt, and
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 140 kt
and 127 kt, respectively.  Based on these data the initial intensity
has been increased to 140 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better
assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.

Willa is moving northward 6 kt.  The hurricane is forecast to
continue to move northward today around the western flank of a
deep-layer ridge that is located over the Gulf of Mexico.
A short wave trough that is seen in water vapor imagery near 130W
longitude is forecast to deepen as it moves eastward toward Baja
California.  This should cause Willa to turn north-northeastward
tonight, then accelerate northeastward on Tuesday, bringing the
center of the hurricane onshore along the west-central coast of
Mexico Tuesday afternoon or evening.  As mentioned in the previous
advisory, the track guidance is good agreement on the overall
scenario but there are still some notable differences in the
predicted forward speed of the hurricane.  The NHC track forecast
leans toward the faster solutions of the GFS and GFS ensemble
mean, which have been handling Willa's track the best so far.

The environment of low wind shear and water temperatures of 28
to 29.5 degrees Celsius suggest some additional strengthening is
possible but with the evidence that an eyewall replacement has
begun, some fluctuations intensity are possible during the next 12
to 24 hours.  After that time, increasing southwesterly shear is
forecast to induce weakening, but Willa is likely to remain an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the
west-central coast of Mexico.  After landfall, shear and the
mountainous terrain of Mexico will cause rapid weakening and
dissipation of the cyclone.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
coasts of the Isla Marias, and west-central and southwestern
Mexico near the path of Willa.  Residents should rush preparations
to completion to protect life and property and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Everyone in Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area
along coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa.  Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 19.1N 107.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 20.1N 107.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 21.4N 106.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 23.1N 105.6W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/1200Z 25.4N 102.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Willa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 221447
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE WILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018               
1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 41  57(98)   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  1  78(79)  11(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X  47(47)  23(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X  11(11)  81(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
MAZATLAN       50  X   1( 1)  56(57)   5(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)  25(25)   5(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
SAN BLAS       34  2  33(35)  36(71)   2(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
SAN BLAS       50  X   1( 1)  16(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
P VALLARTA     34  3  16(19)   7(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 110W       34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Willa Graphics

Hurricane Willa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 17:36:45 GMT

Hurricane Willa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 15:28:00 GMT

deformed-offering