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Tropical Sea Temperatures

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Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

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Current Pacific Satellite Loop

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270509
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 27 Jun 2019 08:01:19 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270522
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alvin, located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop in a few days several
hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico.  Some slow
development of this system is possible over the weekend and into
early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Alvin (EP1/EP012019)

...ALVIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...
 As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Jun 26
 the center of Alvin was located near 14.4, -111.3
 with movement W at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019  

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 270231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012019
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

...ALVIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 111.3W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 111.3 West.  Alvin is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A gradual turn to the
west-northwest is expected on Thursday, and this motion is expected
to continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours.  Weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, and
Alvin is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 27 2019  

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 270230
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019
0300 UTC THU JUN 27 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 111.3W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 111.3W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 110.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 112.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.3N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 111.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019  

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 270232
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012019
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Alvin's presentation on satellite images consists of a well-defined
CDO with very cold cloud tops near/over the center, with very
limited banding features.  Upper-level outflow is fairly distinct
over the western semicircle of the system.  The current intensity
estimate is boosted slightly, to 45 kt, based on Dvorak CI numbers
from both TAFB and SAB.  Alvin is likely to strengthen some more
during the next 12 to 24 hours since it should be moving over
sufficiently warm waters, within low vertical shear, and in a
modestly moist air mass for the next day or so.  Beyond 24 hours,
cooling SSTs and gradually increasing shear should cause a
weakening trend to commence.  All of the models call for rapid
weakening in 2 to 3 days, and the cyclone should degenerate into a
remnant low by Saturday. The official intensity forecast is a
little below the latest model consensus.

Recent center fixes indicate that there is no longer a southward
component of motion, and the initial motion estimate is now westward
or 270/11 kt.  There have been no significant changes to the general
track prediction philosophy.  Over the forecast period, the cyclone
is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
ridge extending westward from northwestern Mexico.  Most of the
track guidance has shifted a little northward on this cycle, and
the new official forecast is slightly north of the previous one,
but a little south of the simple and corrected dynamical consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 14.4N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 15.0N 112.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 16.0N 115.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 19.3N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 27 2019                                              

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 270231
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019               
0300 UTC THU JUN 27 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 115W       34  X  26(26)   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
15N 115W       50  X   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
15N 115W       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics

Tropical Storm Alvin 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2019 02:33:21 GMT

Tropical Storm Alvin 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2019 03:24:18 GMT

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