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Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from NOAA

 

Current US IR Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141112
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 14 Jul 2020 16:05:13 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141116
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Six-E, located several hundred miles southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Depression Six-E (EP1/EP062020)

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...
 As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 14
 the center of Six-E was located near 18.1, -116.6
 with movement WNW at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020  

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 141436
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062020
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020
 
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 116.6W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 116.6 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 
km/h).  A faster motion toward the west-northwest or west is 
expected during the next day or two.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two, 
and the depression is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate 
by early Wednesday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020  

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 141436
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062020
1500 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 116.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 116.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.2N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 116.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020  

802 
WTPZ41 KNHC 141438
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062020
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020
 
The depression has been moving over a ridge of warmer sea surface 
temperatures (about 28C) over the past few hours, and a 
nontrivial amount of deep convection redeveloped soon after the 
issuance of the previous advisory, albeit at least 60 n mi to the 
southwest of the low-level center.  However, with no appreciable 
change in the cyclone's structure, the initial intensity remains 25 
kt in accordance with the overnight scatterometer data.  The 
depression is forecast to reach waters colder than 26C in 12-24 
hours, which should extinguish the remaining deep convection.  The 
updated NHC forecast now shows the depression degenerating into a 
remnant low by 24 hours, with dissipation by 48 hours.  Another 
scenario is that the depression could dissipate at any time if it 
opens up into a trough, which is shown by most of the global model 
guidance.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt, which is 
more poleward than has been shown by the dynamical track models.  
Because of this, the simpler shallow trajectory models are given a 
higher contribution on this cycle, with the new NHC track forecast 
ending up a bit north of the previous forecast.  The depression 
and its remnants are expected to gradually accelerate toward the 
west-northwest or west over the next day or two until dissipation.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 18.1N 116.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 18.4N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0000Z 18.2N 126.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Depression Six-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020                                              

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 141436
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062020               
1500 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics

Tropical Depression Six-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Jul 2020 14:39:23 GMT

Tropical Depression Six-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Jul 2020 15:24:36 GMT

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