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Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from NOAA

 

Current US IR Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251745
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form off the east 
coast of the United States by tonight. The frontal low is forecast 
to move generally north-northeastward through early this week, and 
the system will likely bring rain and wind impacts to portions of 
the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The system should then 
begin to move eastward away from the U.S. coast by midweek. By the 
end of the week, the low could acquire some tropical or subtropical 
characteristics while it moves eastward or southeastward over the 
central Atlantic. For more information on this system, including 
storm watches and warnings, see products issued by your local 
National Weather Service office and High Seas Forecasts issued by 
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Latto

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 25 Oct 2021 21:47:30 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251745
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 25 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
downgraded Tropical Storm Rick, located inland about 100 miles 
north of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Tropical Depression Rick (EP2/EP172021)

...RICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES...
 As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 25
 the center of Rick was located near 20.0, -102.5
 with movement N at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Rick Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021  

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 252035
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rick Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021
 
...RICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 102.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rick was 
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 102.5 West. The 
depression is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this 
motion is expected to continue into tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the 
next 24 hours, and Rick is expected to dissipate over the 
mountainous terrain of Mexico by tonight or Tuesday morning.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy
rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Depression Rick Forecast Advisory Number 14

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 25 2021  

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 252035
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021
2100 UTC MON OCT 25 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 102.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 102.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 102.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.5N 102.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 102.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Depression Rick Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021  

983 
WTPZ42 KNHC 252035
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Depression Rick Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021
 
Rick has continued to move farther inland over the mountainous 
terrain of Mexico. The core of the cyclone collapsed earlier this 
afternoon, and what remains of the deep convection near it's 
estimated center is gradually dissipating. The strongest convection 
now associated with the system is located along the coast, and an 
earlier ASCAT overpass showed that the peak winds in those showers 
and thunderstorms were only 20 to 25 kt. There are very few surface 
observations near where the estimated center of Rick is located. 
Therefore, based primarily on the degradation in the satellite 
appearance of the cyclone, the initial intensity has been lowered to 
30 kt. 
 
Rick's estimated motion is 355/12 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge to 
the east of the depression should keep it on this same general 
trajectory farther inland over Mexico into tonight. Therefore, 
continued weakening is inevitable. Visible satellite images indicate 
that the low-level center of Rick is becoming diffuse. Although the 
NHC forecast shows dissipation in 24 h, this may occur much sooner. 

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday.  This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 20.0N 102.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 21.5N 102.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Depression Rick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 25 2021                                              

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 252035
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021               
2100 UTC MON OCT 25 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Depression Rick Graphics

Tropical Depression Rick 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Oct 2021 20:36:41 GMT

Tropical Depression Rick 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Oct 2021 21:21:01 GMT

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