Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142316
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located about 900 miles east-southeast of 
Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions over the system are forecast to become more 
conducive for development by the middle of this week.  A tropical 
depression could form late this week as the system moves slowly 
west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 15 Sep 2026 02:45:43 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142320
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Norbert, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, and on 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well to the south of southwestern 
Mexico near the end of this week. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some development over the weekend as the system moves 
west-northwestward to northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP142026)

...NORBERT LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Sep 14 the center of Norbert was located near 20.2, -140.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 22

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Sep 14 2026 000
WTPZ34 KNHC 150232
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
500 PM HST Mon Sep 14 2026
 
...NORBERT LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 140.5W
ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 140.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and a generally westward motion is expected over the next couple of 
days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast during 
the next 48 hours, and Norbert is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low tomorrow.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Future information on Norbert can be found under Central Pacific 
basin headers starting with the next advisory at 1100 PM HST, under 
AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO.  Products will 
continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov.


Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 22

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026 000
WTPZ24 KNHC 150231
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 140.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 140.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 139.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.5N 142.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.7N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.8N 147.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 140.5W

FUTURE INFORMATION ON NORBERT CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES 
ISSUED UNDER CENTRAL PACIFIC HEADERS...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1 
...WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Sep 14 2026 000
WTPZ44 KNHC 150232
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
500 PM HST Mon Sep 14 2026

Deep convection has decreased dramatically in association with 
Norbert over the past several hours.  A fairly recent Oceansat 
scatterometer pass and a Dvorak classification from TAFB 
indicate that the system has dropped below tropical storm strength, 
and the advisory intensity is reduced to 30 kt.

Norbert is moving a little north of west with an initial motion 
estimate of 285/13 kt.  The cyclone should move mainly westward 
within the flow south of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge for 
the next couple of days.  The official track forecast is close to 
the latest corrected model consensus, HCCA, guidance.
 
The system should remain in an environment of strong vertical wind 
shear and relatively dry and stable air for the next few days.  
Therefore, the cyclone is expected to become post-tropical within 
24 hours and then open up into a trough by Wednesday.

Now that Norbert is in the Central Pacific, additional information 
on this system can be found under Central Pacific basin headers 
beginning with the next advisory at 1100 PM HST.  Future Tropical 
Cyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP1 and 
WMO header WTPA41 PHFO.  Products will continue to be available on 
the web at hurricanes.gov
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 20.2N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 20.5N 142.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 20.7N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z 20.8N 147.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026 000
FOPZ14 KNHC 150232
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 140W       34 13   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
20N 145W       34  X  12(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2026 02:33:47 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152026)

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 16.5, -121.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026 252 
WTPZ35 KNHC 150233
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026
 
...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 121.6W
ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 121.6
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few 
days.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or 
so, and the depression could become a tropical storm Tuesday or 
Wednesday. The system is expected to weaken beginning Wednesday 
night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026 251 
WTPZ25 KNHC 150233
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 121.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 121.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 121.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.3N 122.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.2N 124.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.1N 126.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.1N 128.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.6N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.2N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 121.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026 280 
WTPZ45 KNHC 150234
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Visible satellite imagery continues to show the exposed center of 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E well to the west of the convective 
area, due to westerly vertical wind shear of 10 to 15 kt affecting 
the system.  In fact, the center has ran out farther ahead to the 
west of the convection compared to earlier today, now about 40-45 n 
mi from the nearest deep convection.  The latest subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates range from 29-35 kt.  An 
earlier ASCAT-B overpass at 14/1630 UTC showed peak vectors of 27 kt 
located 60 to 80 n mi from the center in the eastern semicircle.  
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt since the tropical cyclone 
has not become any better organized since the time of the ASCAT 
pass.

Satellite fixes over the past 12 to 18 hours have been a bit 
erratic, but generally indicate a motion slightly south of due west, 
or 260 degrees at 9 knots.  Ridging to the northwest of the 
depression should keep it on a similar heading for the next couple 
of days.  By late Wednesday, global models show the orientation of 
the ridge changing slightly, which should cause the depression to 
turn to a direction between west and west-northwest with a slight 
increase in forward speed for the remainder of the forecast period. 
The latest NHC track forecast is a bit south of the previous one, 
and lies between the farther north TVCN and the farther south HCCA 
and GDMI.  It should be noted that the cross track spread is quite 
large from hour 24 onward, and confidence in the track forecast is 
below average.

The environment is generally unfavorable for significant 
strengthening due to the moderate northwesterly vertical wind shear 
advecting some dry air into the center of the depression.  Even 
though this shear should decrease some over the next 24 h, the 
intensity models are in good agreement that this system is unlikely 
to strengthen beyond a low-end tropical storm.  Given how far any 
convection is from the center currently, and that the system should 
start weakening in a couple of days as it reaches a drier 
environment, significant intensification appears unlikely.  The 
depression could potentially become post-tropical or dissipate 
sooner than this forecast indicates.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 16.5N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 16.3N 122.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 16.2N 124.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 16.1N 126.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 16.1N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 16.6N 133.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0000Z 17.2N 138.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026 273 
FOPZ15 KNHC 150233
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152026               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 125W       34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2026 02:35:10 GMT