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Current Pacific Satellite Loop

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201106
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 20 Oct 2019 13:06:45 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201146
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Priscilla, located about a hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.

An elongated area of low pressure located more than a thousand
miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Any development of this
system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward at 5
to 10 mph during the next couple of days.  This system is expected
to move into the central Pacific basin by tonight or early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Priscilla are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories on
Priscilla are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS
header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Storm Priscilla (EP4/EP192019)

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 As of 7:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 20
 the center of Priscilla was located near 17.8, -104.0
 with movement N at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Priscilla Public Advisory Number 1A

Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 201145
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 104.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 104.0 West. Priscilla is
is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight.  On the forecast track, the
center of Priscilla will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
within the warning area later today, and move inland by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional slight strengthening is possible
before Priscilla moves inland.  Rapid weakening and dissipation is
expected after landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Priscilla is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in
southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night.  This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within a portion of
the warning area later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Priscilla Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 200844
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192019
0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.3N 104.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.6N 104.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 104.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Priscilla Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 200845
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Microwave, geostationary satellite, and scatterometer data indicate
that the small area of low pressure located near the southwestern
coast of Mexico quickly became better defined during the evening
hours, and deep convection has persisted and become better
organized overnight.  Multiple ASCAT passes revealed winds of at
least 25-30 kt over the southern portion of the circulation, and
based on these data, the system is being classified as a 30-kt
tropical depression.

The depression is moving northward or 355/6 kt. The global models
indicate that the depression will move generally northward around
the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico.  This motion should
bring the center of the cyclone inland over southwestern Mexico
later today or early tonight.  The NHC track forecast follows a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF model fields.

The depression is currently located over warm waters and within an
area of moderate easterly shear.  In fact, the center of the
depression is currently located near the eastern edge of the
convective mass.  Due to the shear and the very short time the
system is expected to remain over water, only slight strengthening
is predicted. The depression, however, could become a short-lived
tropical storm later today.  Once inland, the cyclone should rapidly
weaken and dissipate over the high terrain of southwestern Mexico.

The primary threat with the cyclone will be heavy rainfall
and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides over portions
of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 17.5N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 18.3N 104.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 19.6N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Priscilla Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 200844
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192019               
0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P VALLARTA     34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
MANZANILLO     34  9  18(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
MANZANILLO     50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Priscilla Graphics

Tropical Storm Priscilla 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2019 11:47:21 GMT

Tropical Storm Priscilla 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2019 09:24:24 GMT

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