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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251741
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
the Lesser Antilles.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation of an
elongated low pressure area centered about 350 miles south-southwest
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become a little better
defined.  While the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently poorly organized, environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is likely to form within the next few days while the system
moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United
States.  Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.  The Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission scheduled for this
afternoon was canceled.  However, another aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system on Monday, if necessary.  Additional
information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)

...DORIAN STRENGTHENING... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 25
 the center of Dorian was located near 11.5, -54.2
 with movement W at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 252104
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

...DORIAN STRENGTHENING...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Grenada and its dependencies.

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches or warnings could be issued tonight for portions
of the Windward and Leeward Islands.  Elsewhere, interests in Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress
of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 54.2 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should
continue through tonight.  A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by
late Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by Monday night or Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 252059
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  54.2W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  15SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  54.2W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N  53.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.8N  55.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N  58.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.1N  60.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.1N  62.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.4N  66.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.5N  70.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N  73.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N  54.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 252105
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

While still looking a bit ragged, convection has continued to
increase near the center of Dorian since the last advisory, and a
just-received SSMI/S overpass shows a convective band wrapped about
three-quarters of the way around the center.  Various Dvorak-based
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are in the
35-45 kt range, while recent microwave-based estimates are in the
45-60 kt range.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 45 kt.

The initial motion remains 280/12 kt.  The subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next 72 h or so, with a more
northwestward motion possible thereafter as Dorian approaches an
upper-level low pressure area forecast to be over the north-central
Caribbean.  The model guidance has not shifted much since the
previous advisory.  However, some of the normally reliable models
are in disagreement.  The ECMWF and GFS keep Dorian weaker and
farther south, and they are on the left side of the guidance
envelope.  The HWRF and UKMET have more northerly tracks, and
forecast Dorian to pass near Puerto Rico and then near or north of
Hispaniola.  The various consensus models are between these
extremes, and the earlier forecast is now close to them.  Thus, the
new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast, and
it calls for Dorian to move through the Windward Islands between
36-48 h and cross Hispaniola between 96-120 h.

Dorian still appears to be ingesting dry air based on the somewhat
ragged convective pattern.  This entrainment is expected to continue
sporadically for the next 2-3 days, and this could slow
intensification despite an environment of light to moderate shear.
The intensity guidance is split on how much intensification could
occur during this time.  The statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM
models showing more intensification and forecast Dorian to become a
hurricane. On the dynamical side, the latest HWRF run shows little
development, and the GFS/ECMWF keep the system weak to the point
where it degenerates into a tropical wave before reaching
Hispaniola.  The intensity forecast follows the general trend of the
statistical-dynamical models, but shows less intensification out of
respect for the dynamical models.  The intensity forecast becomes
even lower confidence after 72 h due to uncertainties in how much
shear and land that Dorian will encounter.  The new forecast calls
for Dorian to weaken to a depression due to passage over Hispaniola.
However, the large range of possibilities also includes both Dorian
going north of Hispaniola and remaining a hurricane and the small
cyclone dissipating completely over the island.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and
warnings are in effect.  Residents in these areas should refer to
advice from local government officials and products from their
local meteorological service for additional information.

2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across
portions of the Lesser Antilles, with isolated amounts as high as 6
inches.

3.  While it is too soon to determine the specific time or
magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands, or Hispaniola interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 11.5N  54.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 11.8N  55.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 12.4N  58.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 13.1N  60.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 14.1N  62.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 16.4N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 18.5N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
120H  30/1800Z 20.5N  73.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019                                              

523 
FONT15 KNHC 252104
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019               
2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   7(20)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  12(30)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   7(26)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  29(30)  11(41)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  34(36)   6(42)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   3(15)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  13(30)   1(31)
PONCE PR       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  17(28)   X(28)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   7(19)   X(19)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  27(28)   7(35)   X(35)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   4(25)   X(25)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  29(31)   3(34)   X(34)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   1(19)   X(19)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   1(19)   X(19)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  13(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   8(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   8(20)   X(20)   X(20)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  45(62)   X(62)   X(62)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  24(27)   X(27)   X(27)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  27(32)   5(37)   X(37)   X(37)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  35(49)   3(52)   X(52)   X(52)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   1( 1)  34(35)  35(70)   2(72)   X(72)   X(72)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  22(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
SAINT LUCIA    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   1( 1)  32(33)  27(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)
SAINT VINCENT  50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
SAINT VINCENT  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   8( 8)  63(71)   3(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
BARBADOS       50  X   1( 1)  28(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
BARBADOS       64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics

Tropical Storm Dorian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 21:07:17 GMT

Tropical Storm Dorian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 21:24:36 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251701
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ivo, located about 500 miles west-northwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo (EP5/EP102019)

...IVO DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 25
 the center of Ivo was located near 26.0, -117.9
 with movement NNW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Public Advisory Number 19

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 252030
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

...IVO DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 117.9W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo
was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 117.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 7
mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is forecast to
occur tonight or on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ivo is expected
to dissipate by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Ivo are affecting the west coast of
the Baja California peninsula and portions of the southern
California coastline.  These swells are likely to continue through
this evening and could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Ivo. For additional information on the remnant low please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the
web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php .

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Forecast Advisory Number 19

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 252030
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.9W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.9W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 117.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.9N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.8N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.7N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 117.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON IVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019  

563 
WTPZ45 KNHC 252031
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

The initial motion is 340/07 kt. Ivo has slowed down due to the
system weakening and becoming vertically shallow. A slow
north-northwestward motion is expected today and this evening,
followed by a turn toward the north late tonight or early Monday
morning. The official forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the tightly
clustered consensus models.

The initial intensity of 25 kt is based mainly on continuity with
the previous forecast. The inner-core region of Ivo's circulation
has been devoid of any convection for more than 12 hours. What
little bit of thunderstorm activity that does exist well to the
north-northwest and west of the center is not showing any signs of
feeding back onto the cyclone and, therefore, Ivo has degenerated
into a remnant low pressure system. Additional spin down of the
shallow vortex is forecast due to the cyclone moving over sub-22 deg
C sea-surface temperatures and continuing to ingest more cool and
stable air, with dissipation likely by Tuesday.

Although Ivo is no longer a tropical cyclone, significant swells
generated by the low are still affecting portions of the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula and southern California.  These
swells will continue into tonight and could cause dangerous rip
currents before subsiding on Monday. See products from your local
weather office for additional information.

This is the last NHC advisory on Ivo.  For additional information
on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php .

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 26.0N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  26/0600Z 26.9N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1800Z 27.8N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0600Z 27.7N 117.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 252031
PWSEP5
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019               
2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 20:32:50 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 21:31:16 GMT

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