000
FXUS66 KMTR 110314
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
714 PM PST Tue Dec 10 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather system will produce light rain from
late today into early Wednesday, mainly in the San Francisco Bay
Area and North Bay. A moist zonal flow will keep a chance of
light rain in the forecast for much of the week, with the best
chances across the North Bay. A system will bring another chance
of rain and cooler temperatures on Saturday with dry weather
returning Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 01:55 PM PST Tuesday...A weak storm system is
approaching the California coast this afternoon and will bring
light rain to the area tonight mainly north of Monterey Bay.
Temperatures this afternoon across the southern portion of the
forecast area have been mild in the upper 50s to middle 60s, where
skies have been sunny since early this morning. Low stratus and
now high clouds have kept temperatures cooler around SF Bay and
the North Bay with temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. Clouds
will continue to increase this afternoon ahead of the system.

KMUX radar has begun to detect a band of rainfall over the
coastal waters. Light rain will move into the North Bay this
afternoon and spread south to the Golden Gate and greater Bay Area
this evening. The trough associated with the rain is weakening
and will move through quickly. A brief period of steady light rain
will become more showery overnight tonight and taper off by
Wednesday morning. Rainfall totals will be light, with 0.25 to 0.5
inches across the North Bay (locally higher in the mountains),
0.1 to 0.25 across the Bay Area, and only a few hundredths of an
inch south of the Santa Cruz mountains.

A moist zonal flow will develop Wednesday through the end of the
week. A subtle disturbance in the flow and warm advection will
bring a chance of rain mainly north of the Golden Gate on
Wednesday night and Thursday. Moist onshore flow will continue
into Friday with the best chance of light rain continuing across
the North Bay. Rainfall through the end of the week will be light
with minimal impacts. A slightly warmer airmass will also arrive
with highs on Thursday in the lower to middle 60s. The moist flow
will also provide for mild overnight lows, mainly in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. The moist zonal flow will bring mostly cloudy skies
through the week.

A shortwave trough will then move through northern California on
Saturday. Currently, most of the precipitation with this system is
forecast to remain to our north. The trough will bring a cooler
airmass to the region on Saturday with highs dropping back into
the 50s. A cool, drier northwesterly flow will develop on Sunday
followed by upper level ridging early next week. A progressive
pattern still looks to persist into next week, but the Euro
ensemble has trended towards less amplified troughing.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 7:00 PM PST Tuesday...Approaching frontal
system will bring low level moisture into the area tonight along
with some light rain. MVFR cigs have appeared at STS and is
working its way into SFO Bay Area. Winds will be light and
generally out of the southeast. Models show low level moisture
lingering through the day on Wednesday so it may remain MVFR.

Vicinity of KSFO...As precip band approaches...cigs are expected
to drop gradually lower into MVFR with bases 4000-5000 ft lowering
to 2000-3000 ft after 06Z. Periods of light rain through 12Z.
MVFR cigs persisting through the day Wednesday. Light easterly
winds becoming more southeast tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low clouds off the coast of Carmel
could spread into MRY after 04Z and SNS after 06Z. Low confidence
on timing as it could come in later. Southeast winds around 5-10
kt with except brief west winds possible this afternoon and early
evening.


&&

.MARINE...as of 07:09 PM PST Tuesday...Rain showers will impact
the waters overnight, mainly north of  Pigeon Point. Light to
moderate southerly winds will then continue through much of the
week before shifting back out of the  northwest towards the
weekend. A moderate northwest swell will  persist before a longer
period northwest swell arrives on  Thursday. Wave heights will
gradually build heading into the  coming weekend creating
hazardous seas conditions, particularly  for smaller vessels.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 9 PM until 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: ST
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: Rowe

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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion

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USA Extremes for Monday, December 9, 2019

High Temperature

91°F at Albany Municipal, GA

Low Temperature

-19°F at Grand Forks/Intl, ND

High Precipatation

2.81in at Hatteras (asos), NC

Data courtsey of NWS-CPC

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