Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 171747
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located about 500 miles west of Bermuda, on Tropical
Depression Ten, located more than 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Imelda, located
near Freeport, Texas.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Some gradual development will be possible over the
weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Imelda are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Imelda are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Imelda (AT1/AL112019)

...TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD INLAND...
 As of 1:30 PM CDT Tue Sep 17
 the center of Imelda was located near 29.0, -95.3
 with movement N at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Imelda Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 171658
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Special Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 95.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas
from Sargent to Port Bolivar.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent to Port Bolivar

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 95.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through early
Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night
and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of the depression
will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move
farther inland tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves
onshore.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of 15 inches
across the upper coastal region of Texas into far southwest
Louisiana through Thursday.  This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Imelda Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1700 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 171657
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112019
1700 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS
FROM SARGENT TO PORT BOLIVAR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TO PORT BOLIVAR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  95.4W AT 17/1700Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  95.4W AT 17/1700Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  95.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 29.4N  95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 30.1N  95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.7N  95.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 31.3N  96.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N  95.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Tropical Storm Imelda Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 171706
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Special Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Satellite, radar, and surface data show that the area of low
pressure near the Upper Texas coast has become better defined this
morning.  The associated deep convection has also become better
organized, and winds from the Houston Doppler Radar support
an initial intensity of 30 kt.  Based on these data, advisories are
being initiated on a tropical depression.  The system has very
little time left over water in which to strengthen, but given the
recent increase in organization, the system is forecast to become a
tropical storm before it moves inland.  As a result, a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the Upper Texas
coast.  Regardless of the intensity of the system, the primary
threat associated is flooding rainfall that is expected over
portions of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana over the next
day or two.

The initial motion estimate is 005/6 kt. The cyclone should move
inland very soon, and a general northward motion around the western
side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley should
continue through tonight.  The system is forecast to turn north-
northwestward on Wednesday and that general motion is forecast to
continue until dissipation occurs.  The NHC track forecast follows
the solution of the majority of the dynamical models.

Key Messages:

1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
Galveston areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1700Z 28.7N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 29.4N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1200Z 30.1N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/0000Z 30.7N  95.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  19/1200Z 31.3N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Imelda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 1700 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019


000
FONT11 KNHC 171658
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN                                          
SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112019               
1700 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1700Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAMERON LA     34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
JASPER TX      34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  6   5(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  7   2( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 30   2(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
HOUSTON TX     34 24   6(30)   2(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
HOUSTON TX     50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 19   9(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 17   2(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34 13   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Storm Imelda Update Statement

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT61 KNHC 171827
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
130 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD INLAND...

NOAA Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that
Tropical Storm Imelda made landfall near Freeport, Texas at
100 PM CDT with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

A National Ocean Service observing site at Freeport, Texas reported
a minimum pressure near 1005 mb (29.68 inches) around the time of
landfall.

SUMMARY OF 130 PM CDT...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown


Tropical Storm Imelda Graphics


Tropical Storm Imelda 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 16:59:09 GMT

Tropical Storm Imelda 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 16:59:09 GMT

Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TX

Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019


Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO'S EYE GETTING BETTER DEFINED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER TO BERMUDA...
 As of 2:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 17
 the center of Humberto was located near 30.8, -72.9
 with movement ENE at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 961 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 20A

Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 171743
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...HUMBERTO'S EYE GETTING BETTER DEFINED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
CLOSER TO BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 72.9W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Humberto was located by satellite near latitude 30.8 North,
longitude 72.9 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast
near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual
increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass
just to the north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours,
and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or
Wednesday morning.

Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical Storm conditions are expected over Bermuda by
Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Thursday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible over Bermuda Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

RAINFALL:  Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday.  Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 20

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 171453
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N  73.5W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  961 MB
EYE DIAMETER  35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  50SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N  73.5W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  73.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.1N  72.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.8N  69.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.1N  66.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 35.3N  62.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 39.6N  58.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 43.0N  52.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 44.5N  40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N  73.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 171458
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated
Humberto earlier this morning found 700-mb flight-level winds of 96
kt and 82-kt surface winds on a dropsonde in the southwestern
quadrant, and 81-kt SFMR surface winds in the northwestern quadrant.
More importantly, the wind data indicate that Humberto's wind field
has expanded significantly and is becoming asymmetric with the
largest wind radii now located in the southern semicircle. The
aircraft also measured a central pressure of 961 mb, down 18 mb
since this time yesterday. The central pressure typically
corresponds to an intensity of around 100 kt, but the expansion of
the wind field has resulted in little increase in the eyewall wind
field for now. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been
increased to 85 kt.

Humberto has maintained an east-northeastward motion of 075/07 kt.
The hurricane is forecast to remain embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies though the forecast period. A deep-layer trough is
forecast to dig southward to the west of Humberto in the 24-48 hour
period, causing the hurricane to gradually gain latitude and pass
just to the northwest of Bermuda in around 36 hours. The models are
in excellent agreement on this developing track scenario and are
tightly clustered around the previous advisory track. However, the
recent expansion of the wind field and the expected additional
increase in the wind on the southeast side of Humberto's circulation
will result in the island being in near-hurricane-force conditions.
By 72 hours and beyond, Humberto will accelerate northeastward
over the cold waters of the north Atlantic and interact with a
strong frontal system, resulting in the transition into a large
extratropical low. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track through 48 hours, and then is a little
faster in the 72-120 hour period, close to a blend of the various
consensus models.

Due to the expansion of Humberto's wind field and large 35-40-n mi
wide eye, only modest strengthening is expected during the next 36
hours or so. Although not explicitly shown, Humberto could still
become a major hurricane between 24-36 hours when the cyclone will
be located over the warmest water of about 29C. Thereafter,
gradual wakening is forecast due to cooler waters and strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 40 kt. However, the
typical rate of weakening due to such hostile shear conditions will
be tempered owing to the increasing baroclinic forcing in the
right-rear entrance region of a polar jet maximum. The new intensity
forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory, and follows a
blend of the consensus models HCCA and FSSE.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. Residents there should follow advice
given by local officials.

2. Large swells will increase along the coast of Bermuda by
Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially along south-facing
beaches, could cause coastal flooding Wednesday night and Thursday.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 30.7N  73.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 31.1N  72.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 31.8N  69.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 33.1N  66.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 35.3N  62.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 39.6N  58.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 43.0N  52.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/1200Z 44.5N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019


000
FONT14 KNHC 171453
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   3(19)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  12(21)   X(21)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   6( 6)  82(88)   5(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)  48(48)  14(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)  15(15)  11(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Hurricane Humberto Graphics


Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 17:45:42 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 15:26:01 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102019)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 17
 the center of Ten was located near 12.9, -44.9
 with movement WNW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 171446
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 44.9W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 44.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system will approach the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.  The
system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it approaches the
northern Leeward Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 171446
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  44.9W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  44.9W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  44.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.8N  46.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.7N  47.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N  50.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N  52.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.2N  59.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N  64.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N  44.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 171447
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized
this morning.  Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the
Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical
depression.  The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the
satellite estimates.  The depression is forecast to move over
gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable
upper-level environment.  The only negative factor for
intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low
shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast
during the next several days.  The NHC forecast calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain
hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models.

Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt.  A strong deep-layer
ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression
generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the
next few days.  The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward
Islands in about 3 days.  By late in the period, the cyclone is
expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is
increasing spread among the guidance.  The global model ensemble
means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and
UKMET are along the left side.  The NHC track lies close the
consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest
ECMWF.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 12.9N  44.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 13.8N  46.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 14.7N  47.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 15.5N  50.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 16.3N  52.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 18.2N  59.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 20.2N  64.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 22.5N  69.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019


000
FONT15 KNHC 171447
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  27(28)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)
PONCE PR       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
PONCE PR       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   7(20)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
SAN JUAN PR    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   5(31)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  33(34)   5(39)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   2(17)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   3(27)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  42(46)   1(47)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   X(23)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  30(34)   1(35)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   X(15)
SABA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  29(33)   X(33)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)
ST EUSTATIUS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  26(30)   1(31)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  32(43)   1(44)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)   X(20)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  23(31)   1(32)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   X(18)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Depression Ten Graphics


Tropical Depression Ten 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 14:47:56 GMT

Tropical Depression Ten 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 15:33:10 GMT