000
FXUS66 KMTR 282330
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
430 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1229 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Rain will increase in coverage and intensity early Friday morning as
a cold front sweeps through the region. Post frontal convection is
then likely in wake of the passing front and will continue at times
through Saturday evening. Drying trend Monday as high pressure
builds and lasts through the middle of next week with a return to
dry and seasonably mild weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1229 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Mostly dry conditions are forecast to return to the region this
evening with rain increasing in coverage and intensity early Friday
morning. Rain will be heaviest along the favored coastal ranges and
inland hills/mountains with lesser amounts in the typically rain-
shadowed valleys. As the front moves through by Friday afternoon
CAPE will begin to increase and therefore will increase the
potential for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, initially over the
ocean and near the coast.

Winds will also increase out of the south Friday and become slightly
offshore by Saturday as the low pressure system remains just off of
the coast as it shifts southward. Thus, Wind Advisories have been
issued for the San Francisco Peninsula Coast, Santa Cruz Mountains,
East Bay Hills, coastal Monterey Bay, the Big Sur Coast and
mountains of San Benito Co from Friday morning until Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1229 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Saturday will feature post frontal rain showers and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms as CAPE increases over the entire Bay Area
and Central Coast. Rain showers will taper off Saturday night but
with surface heating may increase by Sunday afternoon before drying
conditions return on Monday.

Rainfall totals from early Friday through Sunday morning look to
range from:

-0.50" to 1.00" for most areas
-1.00" to 1.75" for coastal low lands and interior North Bay
-1.25" to 2.50" for higher elevations along the coast
-2.00" to 3.00" for the highest peaks along the coast
-4.00" to 5.00" for isolated areas on the Big Sur Coast

A warming and drying trend will begin Monday and continue into the
middle part of next week with temperatures warming into the mid-to-
upper 70s across the interior with low-to-upper 60s near the coast.
Thereafter, a trough potentially develops across the region bringing
the return of unsettled conditions. Stay tuned for additional updates!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 429 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Isolated showers continue across the North Bay and parts of the
wider SF Bay Area. These showers should diminish through the evening
before an incoming low pressure system parallels the California
coast beginning on Friday. Pre-frontal showers should begin around
12-14Z with stronger and more consistent rain coming spreading
across the region starting Friday afternoon. Breezy northwesterly
winds will diminish overnight, then turning to the south to
southeast on Friday with strong gusts expected in the afternoon and
evening. Generally VFR conditions continue with the potential for
MVFR ceilings with the pre-frontal showers, with MVFR ceilings
becoming widespread as the main rain band comes through the
region.

Vicinity of SFO... Expecting VFR with breezy west-northwest winds
through the evening, winds diminishing early overnight. Pre-frontal
showers develop around 12-14Z Friday, with more intense and
consistent rain coming through Friday afternoon and evening. Winds
turn towards the southeast and become highly gusty. Have opted for
wind speeds slightly stronger than model outputs based on recent
history of SFO tending to outdo the models. Currently put gusts up
to 30 knots in the TAF, but would not be surprised to see gusts rise
above 35 knots. After the main rain band passes, expect continuing
showers and thunderstorms through and beyond the end of the TAF
period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR with breezy northwest winds through
the evening, winds diminishing overnight. Pre-frontal showers arrive
Friday morning with more consistent rain coming near or at the end
of the TAF period. Winds will turn to the southeast on Friday
with strong gusts, up to 25 knots at MRY and perhaps 35 knots at SNS.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 429 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Scattered showers continue over the coastal waters with a brief
break expected this evening before light to moderate precipitation
returns on Friday. Gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes
continue  through Thursday evening before moderate to strong
southwesterly  winds develop ahead of the incoming low pressure
system. Gale force  gusts will become more likely, particularly
across the southernmost  marine zones, Friday into Saturday with
isolated gale force gusts  possible across the northernmost zones.
Thunderstorm chances are  highest (25 to 30 percent chance) over
the coastal waters on Friday  with a 15 to 25 percent chance on
Saturday. Wave heights will  continue to build through the early
work week before starting to  diminish.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ509-
     512-515-517-518-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...Kennedy

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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion