262
FXUS66 KMTR 070604
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1004 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

 - Hazardous beach conditions from swells through Saturday
   evening at Pacific Coast beaches.

 - 20 to 40% chance of rain in the North Bay Sunday night.

 - Better chances for rain middle of next week.

 - More active pattern looks to set in next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

Though temperatures remained well-above seasonal normals today,
afternoon readings came in several degrees cooler than yesterday,
following our expected trajectory for gradually decreasing
temperatures. The weekend will see additional cooling, with the
region experiencing below-normal temperatures by midweek.

Otherwise, no changes to the forecast this evening. Slight (10-20
percent) chances of rainfall continue for the area Sunday afternoon
and evening, with best chances in the North Bay. The most likely
outcome is nuisance light rain / sprinkles, with minimal rain-
related impacts expected. Rain chances further increase Monday and
Tuesday as an offshore system ushers 0.90-1.10" PWATs inland. Storm
Total Precipitation continues to fall in an envelope generally
between 0.10" and 0.25" across the forecast area, with upward of
0.50" possible in the higher terrain, and as low as 0.05" in valley
locations.

A High Surf Advisory continues through 9 PM Saturday for all Pacific
Coast beaches... find details in the BEACHES section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 146 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
(This evening through Saturday)

It`s another Chamber of Commerce weather day across the central
Cali coast with sunny skies and widespread temperatures in the
60s. However, the thin layer of stratocu that developed along the
Big Sur coast is a sign of potential trouble for tonight. This is
this sign of a bit of a marine layer working back on to the
mainland. RAP Bufkit soundings highlight around a 1000 foot deep
moist layer developing tonight, which means valley stratus and fog
will become problematic. HREF/REFS are showing lower visibilities
with fog developing for most of the major valleys in the region,
with dense fog developing up through Salinas, the southern Bay
into San Franciso Bay itself and up in the valleys of Napa and
especially Sonoma county. This may lead to some fog/low stratus
issues Saturday morning at all Bay area airports.

For the rest of Saturday, we`ll spend the morning burning off
what fog/stratus we end up with, with another stellar afternoon of
weather expected across the Bay area and central coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 146 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)

The big story for the long term is the much anticipated(?) pattern
shift at the end of the period, with a western trough developing
next weekend. Before that large scale pattern shift settles in,
there will be a couple of blips to watch out for, late Sunday
through Sunday night and Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

The first trough that we see finally starting to beat down the
ridge comes Sunday. This will be heading for Washington and
Oregon though, with central California seeing a weakly forced
plume of moisture moving south along the coast Sunday through
Sunday night. EPS QPF probabilities barely bring precip
probabilities into northern Sonoma and Napa counties, so we
continued to trim the southern extent of PoPs across the Bay area
Sunday night from the NBM. In the end, this looks to be a cloud
and sprinkle maker, but not much more than that in the MTR area.

Tuesday, a deeper trough starts working down the west coast. We`ll
see stronger onshore flow develop with this trough, with deeper
moisture moving into California. Precip chances from the NBM
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night remain in the 40-60% range. A
look at the individual members of the EPS for SFO, still shows
about a 60/40 split between wet/dry members at SFO, so it`s still
not a lock that we see rainfall at some of the rain shadowed
locations midweek. Even if we get rain, amounts still look light
with up to 0.5" on the coastal ranges.

Behind this wave, we see another ridge build in across California
Thursday/Friday out ahead of the deepening trough over the
northeast Pac. This ridge will dry us out and bring some sunny
skies again for Thursday and Friday, giving us one more break
before the deep troughing arrives. When that deep troughing
gets here, we`ll see an uptick in rainfall for the second half of
next weekend that will continue into the following week. Also
happening mid-February with the trough moving (week of 2/16) is
freezing levels will be dropping, with snow levels starting to
move down as well. At this point, it doesn`t look like freezing
levels will be low enough to significantly impact higher
elevations in the MTR area, but those that are hoping to just see
snow in western mountains somewhere, there is hope for you with
the current outlooks in mid-February!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 942 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

Marine stratus has increased in coverage along the coast and is
beginning to push inland. Confidence remains high that mainly
IFR/LIFR stratus and localized fog will continue to increase
overnight, impacting all TAF terminals. Fog has already developed
near STS and should continue into Saturday morning. Elsewhere, the
potential for fog reducing visibilities below 1SM is lower, but
not zero. Improving conditions late Saturday morning into early
afternoon with stratus eroding back to the coast. Prevailing
onshore flow will allow low stratus to advance into the terminals
once again Saturday night. Winds through the period will mostly
be light, with onshore or diurnally-driven winds overnight and
primarily onshore winds on Saturday.

Vicinity of SFO...IFR stratus expected to push into the terminal
by 08Z, with a low potential for LIFR fog or low ceilings
overnight as well. IFR conditions continuing through around 20Z
before improving Saturday afternoon/evening. Another round of low
ceilings expected overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Winds
mainly light WNW around 10 kts or less.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...IFR stratus will continue to push into
the SF Bay overnight, reaching OAK around 07Z and SJC 08-10Z.
Conditions mainly IFR, although there is a low potential for LIFR
fog/stratus at both sites, with a slightly higher chance at SJC.
Stratus eroding by 19-20Z with VFR conditions expected Saturday
afternoon. More low stratus pushing back in from the coast
Saturday night, mainly after 06Z. Winds mainly light NW to
variable.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR stratus overnight, although short
breaks in IFR conditions are possible. Conditions improving by
early Saturday afternoon, with a few low clouds lingering along
the coast. Winds mainly light NW to variable.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 942 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

A light to gentle north wind prevails across most of the coastal
waters through Saturday, with light southwest flow developing in
the far outer waters north of Point Reyes. Northerly winds will
increase in the northern Monterey Bay on Saturday morning, with
seas then diminishing into Saturday evening. A cold front moves
southeastward over the coastal waters and bays gradually during
the day Sunday and Sunday night, resulting in an increase in
north-northwesterly winds Monday and Tuesday. Rough seas will
diminish to moderate seas by Saturday afternoon, persisting
through Sunday before a new swell train comes into the region
early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 247 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

A High Surf Advisory will be in effect beginning 4 AM PST today
at all Pacific Coast beaches, the High Surf Advisory continues
through 9 PM Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk
for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves 17 to
22 feet.

Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back
on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Soulat
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM....MPG
AVIATION...Tangen
MARINE...DialH

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion